Bitumen — Market Analysis
QAA Intelligence examines bitumen prices, refinery supply, regional trade flows and the factors shaping demand from road construction and infrastructure projects. The market is assessed through distinct physical-price benchmarks and exchange-linked indicators, with particular attention to the Middle East.
Price Trend
Recent price history: latest 14 observations (2026-10-14 to 2026-11-02)
| Date | Price |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 4,568.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-15 | 4,495.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-16 | 4,470.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-19 | 4,450.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-20 | 4,468.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-21 | 4,509.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-22 | 4,498.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-23 | 4,600.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-26 | 4,738.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-27 | 4,893.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-28 | 4,945.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-29 | 5,106.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-10-30 | 5,204.00 CNY/MT |
| 2026-11-02 | 5,276.00 CNY/MT |
Bitumen Market Overview
Bitumen is the heaviest residue of crude oil refining, taken from the bottom of the vacuum distillation column. About 85% of it goes into road paving, most of the rest into roofing and waterproofing. World consumption is estimated at 120-130 million tonnes a year, and roughly a quarter of that crosses borders. Trade is quoted by penetration grade (60/70, 80/100) or viscosity grade (VG30, VG40), and by packaging (heated bulk, steel drums, jumbo bags), which is why two prices for 'bitumen' are only comparable when grade, origin, packaging and delivery terms match.
Global Supply & Demand
Supply depends on how much heavy, sour crude refineries run and on how they are configured: a refinery that adds a coker or residue upgrader turns its bottoms into fuels and makes less bitumen. Demand follows road budgets and the weather. Paving in the northern hemisphere runs mainly from April to October, and the South Asian monsoon (June-September) slows Indian buying every year. China, the United States and India together account for about half of world consumption, at roughly 34, 24 and 8.4 million tonnes in 2024.
Major Producing & Exporting Countries
China and the United States are the largest producers but use almost all of their output at home. Among exporters (2024, UN Comtrade and trade estimates, rounded): Canada leads with about 5.1 million tonnes, nearly all to the US by rail and truck. Singapore (about 2.6-2.8 Mt) and South Korea (about 1.4 Mt) supply China, Southeast Asia and Australia. In the Middle East, Iran (about 2.6 Mt, much of it in drums and jumbo bags from Bandar Abbas), Iraq (about 2.6 Mt) and the UAE (about 2.3 Mt, including blending and re-export through Hamriyah and Fujairah) are the main sources, with Bahrain's Bapco refinery exporting bulk cargoes. Germany (about 1.6 Mt) is Europe's largest exporter.
Major Importing Markets
The United States is the largest single importer, almost entirely from Canada. India is the key seaborne market: it used 8.44 million tonnes in 2024 and imported 2.8 million of them (oil ministry data, reported by Argus), and India Ratings puts the import share near 40%, with more than 95% coming from the Gulf, mainly the UAE, Oman, Iraq and Iran. China imports mainly from Singapore and South Korea. Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines), Bangladesh and Pakistan, East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania) and Australia, which has relied on imports since its refinery closures, make up most of the remaining demand for Middle East and Asian cargoes.
Key Factors Affecting Bitumen Prices
The factors that move bitumen prices most consistently are crude oil and high-sulfur fuel oil prices (refiners compare selling bitumen with selling the same residue as fuel oil), refinery runs and maintenance, the paving season and government road budgets (India's national highway programme, China's local-government infrastructure bonds), freight for heated bitumen tankers, a small specialised fleet, and for drum cargoes in containers, and sanctions and payment channels, which shape the discount on Iranian-origin cargoes.
Bitumen Market Outlook
QAA Intelligence tracks the daily settlement price of Shanghai Futures Exchange bitumen futures (main contract, CNY/MT), with Trading Economics as a secondary reference, alongside monthly regional readings for North America, Europe and Northeast Asia (Business Analytiq, USD/MT), the monthly price of Gulf-origin bitumen landed in India (UAE, Iraq, Iran, Oman and others; official customs data via UN Comtrade, CIF India, about three months behind) and structured news monitoring of refinery, freight and road-budget developments. The China price is a market signal, not an FOB Middle East quotation; Middle East physical assessments from price reporting agencies, such as Argus and Platts FOB Middle East VG30/VG40, are added once licensed for display.
Global Benchmarks
Other references (not comparable with the headline)
Latest News
Market Analysis & Outlook
The SHFE bitumen main futures contract closed at 5,204 CNY/MT on 2026-10-30, up 1.92% from the prior day's 5,106 CNY/MT -- a daily benchmark, not a live quote. This move aligns directionally with a separate Trading Economics China bitumen reading that rose 3.06% to 5,353 CNY/MT on the same date; the two track the same underlying Chinese market but differ in exact level and magnitude. Brent crude has been trading in a notably elevated $113-123/bbl range across late-October readings, and gasoil/diesel prices are similarly high, both of which plausibly support firmer bitumen pricing since bitumen is a heavy residue of crude refining and its cost base moves with crude and refinery economics. However, the price data alone does not confirm a specific trigger (e.g., a supply disruption or demand surge) for this particular session's gain, so the precise cause cannot be identified with certainty beyond the general crude-cost backdrop.
Outlook: With crude oil benchmarks still trading at elevated levels, bitumen costs may stay firm to modestly higher in the near term, though daily futures moves of this size can also reverse quickly without a clear fundamental trigger.
Data Coverage: HighWant the drivers, signals and outlook behind these numbers? QAA Commodity Advisory covers bitumen every two weeks. Buying it? QAA supplies bitumen from its own supplier network and manages the whole supply chain: see Bitumen sourcing. For any other product, QAA Trade Services buys it from your supplier, or one we find for you, then ships and delivers it.